River Brahmaputra (Yarlung Tsangpo), a potencial flashpoint between India & China

Abstract

China and India are the two most populated countries on earth siting astride the Great Himalayas. In addition to being most populous, they are also the fastest growing economies and hence extremely resource hungry. Energy and water being the key resources to guarantee sustained economic growth, both countries are developing diplomatic and military capacities to have secure access to these resources. While the great game of energy security is largely about securing global commons along sea lines of communication to guarantee uninterrupted supply, issue related to water is more regionalised and involves clash of interest with immediate neighbours. Recently, both the powers have shown unprecedented political assertiveness and resource aggressiveness on the issue related to water sharing of an important Himalayan river, namely, Brahmaputra. This seemingly conventional political issue is essentially interlinked to complex existential concerns like water security for burgeoning population and industry, food security and sustained economic growth for both the countries. For China in particular, subsistence of CPC’s political ideology, image projection and super power ambitions are other equal, if not more important concerns. Like ancient times, both the countries are once again major economic and military powers, unlike earlier times neither is willing to have an accommodate approach towards issues concerning their national interests. With a history of protracted edgy relations and a bloody war in 1962, prima facie, the possibility of an all-out war between the two powers over the contentious issue of water sharing appears to be a possibility. On the contrary, historical evidence suggests that water security alone is unlikely to push two countries to war. This paper aims at examining the stated water sharing dispute between India and China with a view to ascertain the likelihood of it becoming a flashpoint for an all-out military conflict between the two Asian giants.